Opening Day is around the corner, so it’s time to take a look across the league and give my incredibly accurate predictions, that in no way will age poorly with any of these teams. It will go division by division, starting with the AL East and ending with the NL West, addressing some key moves each team has made, and predicting what their overall record will be in 2024.
AL EAST
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
2023: 101-61
2024 prediction: 104-58
Back in September of 2022, it was clear that the Orioles were going to be a problem, and last year proved that when they won over 100 games. Unfortunately, they had a disappointing playoff exit to the eventual champion Texas Rangers. Their offense got experience, and they got a huge boost in pitching by acquiring Corbin Burnes and Craig Kimbrel.
The Orioles have also had the last three number one overall prospects for MLB Pipeline, with Adley Rutschman (stud), Gunnar Henderson (stud) and now Jackson Holliday, who will probably be the Orioles starting SS on Opening Day (even if he isn’t, it won’t be long until he is in the majors). The Orioles are scary dangerous.
NEW YORK YANKEES
2023: 82-80
2024 prediction: 92-70
The Yankees had a booming offseason, trading for Padres’ superstar OF Juan Soto and OF Trent Grisham. They also made noise by making a rare trade with the rival Boston Red Sox for OF Alex Verdugo, in addition to signing P Marcus Stroman.
The Yankees struggled a ton last year, specifically when Judge went down with an injury, their offense plummeted. Every one in the rotation was injured outside of Gerrit Cole, who won his first AL Cy Young award. The Yankees need to stay healthy if they want to capitalize on the talented lineup this year, and they need their pitching staff to pick up the slack behind Cole if they want to return to the playoffs.
Update: Cole is out 1-2 months to visit a surgeon for his elbow injury, a huge blow to the Yankees.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
2023: 99-63
2024 prediction: 86-76
I think this is the year the Rays finally take a step back and come down to earth. For the past five or six seasons, the Rays have been in the bottom of the league in payroll, and the top of the standings. It has been incredibly impressive. With trading Tyler Glasnow, and Shane McClanahan missing the season to Tommy John, I’m just not sure the pitching is going to have the juice to get through a full regular season efficiently.
But the Rays have stuck to their gameplay, let veterans walk or trade them and supplement that with younger talent. It’s worked for years, so maybe I’ll be wrong about them and Kevin Cash will have them in the playoffs yet again.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
2023: 89-73
2024 prediction: 81-81
The Jays lost Matt Chapman, Hyun Jin Ryu, Whit Merrifield, and Jordan Hicks. They brought in Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Justin Turner, and Kevin Kiermaier. Doesn’t really feel like a well balanced in-and-out. The Blue Jays are going to look for some big bounce back seasons, specifically from Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk.
But this roster doesn’t move the needle for me; it actually seems like the front office keeps doubling down on a just a few players to carry the load, and it hasn’t worked. Another down season this year could lead to a major shake up next offseason, and that’s what I’m banking on.
BOSTON RED SOX
2023: 78-84
2024 prediction: 70-92
The Red Sox have had bad luck, and bad moves. After letting Xander Bogaerts walk in free agency, they finally moved on from Chris Sale, who was absolutely riddled with injuries over the last few seasons. The Red Sox combated that by signing Lucas Giolito, who is already in danger of missing the entire season. Boston’s pitching has been flat out horrendous for the past few seasons, and it doesn’t look like it will be any better this year.
AL CENTRAL
DETROIT TIGERS
2023: 78-84
2024 predictions: 87-75
The Tigers had a solid end of the year last season, and I think this could be the year they rectify their lowly output for the past several years. With the departure of future Hall-of-Famer Miguel Cabrera, it’s time for the young guns in Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, and Kerry Carpenter to have break out years for Detroit. Matt Manning and Casey Mize will be relied upon for the starting rotation as well, and with veterans Kenta Maeda, Jack Flaherty, Andrew Chafin and Mark Canha coming in, it’s a nice balance for Detroit.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
2023: 56-106
2024 prediction: 84-78
Yes, I am expecting an enormous leap this year for the Kansas City Royals. It’s about time they got back to competing in the AL Central, a division that is absolutely wide open for the taking. They added veterans to every part of their roster: Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Will Smith, Hunter Renfroe and Adam Frazier bring much needed backup to the Royals. It’s the most they’ve spent in free agency in years, and I think it is a direct indication they’re ready to win again.
MINNESOTA TWINS
2023: 87-75
2024 prediction: 77-85
I’m not very confident in the Twins repeating as AL Central champs. They lost two key starting pitchers in Sonny Gray (Cardinals) and Kenta Maeda (who went to the divisional rival Tigers), as well as Jorge Polanco. The departures and acquisitions are just not as balanced as they should be for my liking.
Additionally, your offense is relying heavily on Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis. That feels like you’re one injury away from 100 losses, and it doesn’t inspire confidence in me considering all three of those guys, specifically Buxton, have an injury history.
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
2023: 76-86
2024 prediction: 70-92
The Guardians will have another year of offensive woes. I would be suprised if Jose Ramirez is in a Guardians uniform for much longer, but he does love it there and is super loyal. Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie are great top of the rotation guys, but I just don’t think they alone can win that many games for Cleveland. Along with Ramirez, the Naylor brothers are expected to be big contributors as well.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
2023: 61-101
2024 prediction: 55-107
This team is going to be bad, like really bad. Star pitcher Dylan Cease was expected to be sent off elsewhere, and that’s exactly what happened, being shipped to San Diego. Despite the huge roster swap, it doesn’t feel like there is any fire power here at all, aside from Luis Robert Jr. I hope I’m wrong, because when the White Sox made the playoffs a few years ago, I really thought they were on the come up; but a string of bad roster and managerial moves have seemingly set them back years.
AL WEST
HOUSTON ASTROS
2023: 90-72
2024 prediction: 88-74
Yes, I think the Astros will win the division again. They lost a true leader in Michael Brantley, but with the addition of Josh Hader, this bullpen is strong, and it’s hard to bet against this lineup. The Astros are a threat until proven otherwise, no disrespect to the defending champion Rangers.
SEATTLE MARINERS
2023: 88-74
2024 prediction: 86-76
The Mariners have a shot this year. They got totally screwed out of a playoff spot because two of the best teams in the AL were in their own division, but I like the moves they made in the offseason. They lost some key guys in Teoscar Hernandez, Jared Kelenic, and Eugenio Suarez, but I like the additions of the Mitch’s Garver and Haniger, as well as Jorge Polanco. I’m projecting them to be around the same record, but wouldn’t be surprised if they won the division.
TEXAS RANGERS
2023: 90-72
2024 prediction: 85-77
If you couldn’t tell yet, I’m thinking the AL West is going to be a bloodbath, again. The Rangers, Astros, and Mariners are all really good. Last year it was the Mariners who got the short end of the stick, this year I think it’s going to be the defending Champs. Max Scherzer is out until June or July, plus Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle are recovering from Tommy John and will both probably miss months to start the year.
Even with the injuries last year, the Rangers held up well. But I think the injuries to begin the season could contribute to a slow start, and that might just be the difference in an ultra-tight race for the AL West. Although it is possible all three teams make the playoffs through the Wild Card.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
2023: 73-89
2024 prediction: 58-104
You don’t lose a top three player in all of baseball and then suddenly get better. It doesn’t matter if Anthony Rendon plays 162 games, I think the Angels will be one of the worst teams in the entire league. I really hope Mike Trout stays healthy this year; despite the fact he said requesting a trade would be “the easy way out,” I really think the Angels might trade him this season if things are spiraling into the abyss, and I hope they do because Trout does not deserve this.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
2023: 50-112
2024 prediction: 53-109
The poor Oakland A’s, literally and figuratively. They have no money, they don’t sign people, and they’re going to be fielding essentially a minor league team once again. All while getting ready to transition to Vegas in a few years. I hate this for the city of Oakland, but more importantly, I hate this for the fans. This team was unwatchable last year, and it’ll be more of the same this season.
NL EAST
ATLANTA BRAVES
2023: 104-58
2024 prediction: 101-61
The Braves have their entire lineup locked down for the foreseeable future, which means that they’re going to be a problem for the National League for a while. They lost Eddie Rosario and a couple of pitchers with Kyle Wright and Michael Soroka, but gained Chris Sale and Jared Kelenic. If Chris Sale can remain healthy, what a steal that would be for an already stacked Braves team.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
2023: 90-72
2024 predictions: 94-68
Parting ways with Rhys Hoskins means that Bryce Harper will be assuming First Baseman duties full-time. The Phillies succeeded in two huge things this offseason: re-signing Aaron Nola to a 7y/$170M contract, and extending Zach Wheeler for 3y/$120M. Money well spent if you’re the Phillies, because those two guys can lead you deep into the playoffs yet again.
NEW YORK METS
2023: 75-87
2024 prediction: 80-82
I think guys like Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte can bounce back to have better years, but unfortunately, I don’t think that saves the Mets. After going all in on Scherzer and Verlander, then flipping them both at the deadline last season, they’re now relying on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea while Kodei Senga begins the season on the IL.
You know what you’re getting with Manaea, when he’s healthy. But Severino is coming off a career worst, and the Mets are going to have to rely on him early in the season. On top of all of that, the ever-looming Pete Alonso extension, or lack there of. Maybe Scherzer was right, and 2025 is the Mets year.
MIAMI MARLINS
2023: 84-78
2024 prediction: 73-89
I’m sad to say this but I think the Marlins regress this year, unable to capitalize on what they had last season; this is mostly due to the Tommy John surgery Sandy Alcantara had to undergo, which will keep him sidelined all 2024. Also, with Jorge Soler signing with the Giants, I don’t think the Marlins did much of anything to try and replace his output.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
2023: 71-91
2024 prediction: 67-95
Although the Nationals won’t be very good, there is an enormous bright spot for fans in DC: Dylan Crews (#7 overall on MLB Pipeline) and James Wood (#14 overall on MLB Pipeline). Crews has looked good, boasting a 1.021 OPS this spring; but it’s Wood who has been tearing the cover off the ball. Two very exciting players ahead, and I would suspect they both get some significant run in the majors this year.
NL CENTRAL
CHICAGO CUBS
2023: 83-79
2024 predictions: 90-72
The Cubs did the single most important thing this offseason: resigning Cody Bellinger to a 3y/$80 million contract. After a total collapse at the end of the season that saw them lose out on a playoff spot, I think the Cubs have the ability to run it back, with better results. They lost Marcus Stroman to free agency, but Justin Steele is their guy. I love their roster and I love their chances in a wide open division.
CINCINNATI REDS
2023: 82-80
2024 prediction: 87-75
The Reds improved their pitching by adding Frankie Montas, who is hopefully healthy for the season, but I’m still not totally sold on the rotation as a whole. The Reds had a lot of their young core make huge strides last season, improving by 20 wins from 2022. It would be pretty shocking if they improved by another 10 games or so to get back into the playoffs, but the Reds definitely have something cooking. With the departure of Joey Votto, this is officially a brand new era of Reds baseball.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
2023: 76-86
2024 prediction: 83-79
The Pirates cracked 70 wins for the first time since 2018, Oneil Cruz is back, and Temarr Johnson (#44 MLB Pipeline) is on the horizon with an estimated 2025 arrival. That’s going to be a heck of an infield of Ke’Bryan Hayes, Cruz, and Johnson. For now, though, the Pirates will have to settle for yet another year of improvement; 2025 might be the year they peak and find themselves back on top of the Central.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
2023: 71-91
2024 prediction: 75-87
The Cardinals are old. Paul Goldschmidt had a big let down after his MVP in 2022, and is 36. Nolan Arenado (despite being an All-Star) had his worst year as a pro. They absolutely need these two cornerstone players to return to form to even sniff a chance of competing. The Cards improved their pitching, adding Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn, but all of those pitchers are in their mid-30s. They also signed 37-year-old SS Brandon Crawford, you see the trend? St. Louis is heading for a disastrous cliff, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them try and get rid of some of these players at the deadline to try and gain some youth.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
2023: 92-70
2024 prediction: 72-90
This might be a tough pill to swallow for a team that has won the NL Central in two of the last three season. It’s unclear if Brandon Woodruff will pitch in 2024, Corbin Burnes was traded to Baltimore, Craig Counsell betrayed the organization and went to coach the Cubs, it’s a hard sell that the Brewers are going to be competitive in 2024. However, Jackson Chourio is here and he is the future, so that’s pretty exciting.
NL WEST
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
2023: 100-62
2024 prediction: 111-51
It could potentially be an historic year for the LA Dodgers, and they had a massive offseason turnaround that saw them add some serious firepower. Despite the unliklihood that he will pitch this year, Shohei Ohtani is a Dodger, as is his fellow countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto, two of the most highly coveted free agents from this offseason. They also added Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot, Teoscar Hernandez, and James Paxton. All of which was possible because Ohtani deferred almost all his money until his 10-year contract with LA is done, receiving just two million a year while he is playing.
Injuries got the better of the Dodgers last season, but if they’re healthy, they have way too much firepower to come up short. Once again, it’s championship or bust.
SAN DIEGO PADRES
2023: 82-80
2024 prediction: 90-72
The Padres made a much needed splash before the start of the season by acquiring White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease. They also added Michael King and Jhony Brito from the Yankees in the Juan Soto deal, as well as signing Wandy Peralta, all of which can hopefully provide the Padres with some pitching depth. The Padres were much better than their record indicated last year, and I think they figure it out this year and turn it around to actually make the playoff.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
2023: 84-78
2024 prediction: 88-74
The Diamondbacks made an improbable run to the World Series last year before running into the unstoppable force that was the Texas Rangers. Can they do that again? It feels unlikely, but I still love that team in Arizona. The additions of Eugenio Suarez, Eduardo Rodriguez and Joc Pederson provide solid veteran depth to the team. It’s always tough to try and recapture that magic from the previous season, but the Diamondbacks are definitely for real.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
2023: 79-83
2024 prediction: 86-76
I think the Giants are in line to have a solid year. Unfortunately for them, they play in arguably the hardest division in baseball. Their additions of Jung Hoo Lee, Robbie Ray, and Jorge Soler give them some fire power, but Ray is out until probably the second half of the season recovering from Tommy John, and Alex Cobb is out recovering from hip surgery. So the starting rotation is going to be on the back of Logan Webb once again to start the season, at the minimum.
We’ve seen the Giants rise to the top before in this division, so it shouldn’t come as a shock if they were able to do it again, but their health problems to start the year could do them in.
COLORADO ROCKIES
2023: 59-103
2024 prediction: 55-107
I have no idea what the direction of the Rockies is as a franchise. They kind of just exist in a really good, competitive NL West as the collective punching bag. I hope another 100+ loss season sparks some change in Colorado, but to be honest, it doesn’t feel like anyone even cares. I still, to this day, can’t wrap my head around the “trade Nolan Arenado and then sign Kris Bryant to a mega-deal” move.
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