Ashton Jeanty’s explosion on the college football scene has fans tuning in to watch Boise State football. The star running back is turning heads with his explosive performances, positioning himself as a not-so-dark horse candidate for the Heisman Trophy. Although explosive, there are challenges facing a non-Power Five candidate. Despite that, Jeanty’s numbers to end the season may be undeniable, earning him college football’s most prestigious individual award.
Jeanty’s Standout Performances
In a recent game against Utah State, Jeanty showcased his incredible talent and determination. He rushed for an impressive 186 yards and scored three touchdowns on just 13 carries…in the first half. This led to a dominant 62-30 victory over the Aggies. The Broncos’ coaching staff, recognizing their substantial 49-17 lead at halftime, made the strategic decision to rest their star player. Who knows what the stats would’ve looked like if he played all four quarters?
Jeanty’s first carry of the game resulted in a breathtaking 63-yard touchdown run, setting the tone for his explosive performance. He followed this up with another spectacular 75-yard touchdown run early in the second quarter. These long runs have become a trademark of Jeanty’s playing style in this early season. He’s already recorded seven rushes of 60 or more yards this season, tying the record for the most in the FBS over the past two decades.
Washington State breakout
Jeanty’s dominance wasn’t limited to the Utah State game. In a crucial matchup against Washington State, he delivered another stellar performance that left spectators in awe. Jeanty rushed for a staggering 259 yards on 26 carries, finding the end zone four times. His performance against the Cougars was a masterclass in running back play. Jeanty displayed an impressive combination of power, speed, and elusiveness that the Washington State defense simply couldn’t contain. He broke free for two long touchdown runs of 64 and 59 yards.
Jeanty’s performances have not only been impressive but also historically significant. He has already tied the school record with his fourth 200-yard game of the season. Moreover, he surpassed the 1,000-yard rushing mark for the season in just his fifth game, tying an FBS record. These standout performances have catapulted Jeanty into the national spotlight. He’s now averaging an astounding 206.2 rushing yards per game, with 1,031 yards and 16 touchdowns on just 95 carries through five games. These numbers put him on pace with Barry Sanders’ record-breaking 1988 Heisman-winning season. As Jeanty continues to dominate on the field, his Heisman Trophy odds have significantly improved.
Here's how Ashton Jeanty stacks up against the last three RB Heisman winners 🏆👀
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 6, 2024
Is he next?@BroncoSportsFB | @markingramII pic.twitter.com/51qguLS2bs
Ashton Jeanty is sitting out for the remainder of today’s game.
— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) October 6, 2024
His stats through 5 games:
• 95 carries
• 1,031 rushing yards
• 10.9 yards per carry
• 16 TDs
He’s averaging over 200 YPG and 3 TDs per game 🤯 pic.twitter.com/XfzrquQ6mm
Heisman Trophy Odds and Predictions
Early Candidates
The odds have seen a dramatic reshuffling, with previous favorite Jalen Milroe’s chances taking a hit after Alabama’s unexpected loss to Vanderbilt. Milroe’s odds have dropped to +1100, a stark contrast to his previous position as the betting favorite at +350.
Other top contenders in the Heisman race include:
- Travis Hunter (Colorado)
- Cam Ward (Miami [FL])
- Jalen Milroe (Alabama)
- Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)
- Cade Klubnik (Clemson)
While Jeanty leads the pack, other players are making strong cases for Heisman consideration. Travis Hunter, the two-way star from Colorado, remains a close second in the odds. His versatility as both a receiver and cornerback has impressed voters. Cam Ward, Miami’s quarterback, has been remarkably consistent, throwing for at least 300 yards in every game this season. His ability to lead comebacks, as demonstrated against Cal, has boosted his Heisman stock. Plenty of football left if one of these players wants to separate themselves from the rest.
What Could Stop Him
Despite Jeanty’s current lead in the odds, experts are cautious about predicting a Heisman win for the Boise State star. Several factors contribute to this hesitation:
- Group of Five challenge: Historically, players from non-Power Five conferences have struggled to gain traction in the Heisman race. No player from a Group of Five program has won the award since BYU’s Ty Detmer in 1990.
- Quarterback bias: The Heisman Trophy has become increasingly quarterback-centric in recent decades. Since 2000, only three running backs have claimed the honor: Reggie Bush (USC, 2005), Mark Ingram (Alabama, 2009), and Derrick Henry (Alabama, 2015).
The rarity of non-Power Five winners is evident when examining Heisman voting patterns over the past few decades. Since 1992, only 13 players from non-power conferences have managed to crack the top five in Heisman voting. This list includes some of the greatest players in college football history, such as Marshall Faulk, Randy Moss, and LaDainian Tomlinson.
For a non-Power 5 player to have a shot at the Heisman, their team typically needs to achieve exceptional success. Since 2000, every non-power Heisman finalist has been on a team that won at least 11 games. This sets a high bar for Jeanty and the Boise State Broncos, as they need to not only dominate individually, but also lead their team to an outstanding season. For Jeanty to have a realistic shot at the Heisman, he may need to lead Boise State to an undefeated season and a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Broncos are currently considered favorites to make it as the Group of Five representative if they can win the Mountain West Championship. Such an achievement would significantly boost Jeanty’s national profile and Heisman chances.
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