Clippers

Beyond Kawhi: How The Clippers Challenge Jokić’s Nuggets

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NBA

Let me tell you what’s caught eyes of NBA fans lately – it’s the LA Clippers heating up at exactly the right time. Winning 17 of their last 20 games, they’ve become a team nobody wants to face right now. I’m talking about a squad that’s suddenly looking like they could shock the entire Western Conference. Eight straight wins? Check. League’s best offensive efficiency? Absolutely. And have you seen Kawhi Leonard lately? The man is shooting 65% from the field – back to his fullest form.

The Clippers-Nuggets matchup is shaping up to be a must-see series. They split their regular season series 2-2, which tells me we’re in for a dogfight when these teams clash in the playoffs. I’m breaking down all the numbers that explain this Clippers surge. 

From bottom 10 to elite status

The Clippers have completely flipped the script this season, and their defensive turnaround is the biggest reason why. The Clippers have climbed from 16th in defensive rating last season (114.6) to 2nd this year (107.5). The numbers tell the whole story about this defensive evolution:

  • Opponent turnover rate: From 20th to 5th in the NBA
  • Defensive rebounding percentage: From 24th to 1st league-wide
  • Transition defense: From bottom 10 to top 10

This defensive renaissance isn’t getting enough attention nationally. While everyone’s focused on Kawhi and Harden putting up their scoring numbers, it’s actually their ability to get stops that’s making them scary as the playoffs approach.

Zubac’s impact on rim protection

Ivica Zubac is the unsung hero behind this whole transformation. The big Croatian has changed how teams attack the paint. Opponents shoot just 52.9% at the rim against him, which ranks 8th best in the NBA. Let that sink in – he’s more effective at protecting the rim than guys like Rudy Gobert and Joel Embiid who get all the headlines. With Zubac patrolling the paint, teams just can’t get easy buckets. 

Perimeter defense improvements

The Clippers’ front office deserves major props for bolstering their perimeter defense with guys like Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., and Nicolas Batum. Dunn especially has been a revelation on that end. This man is putting up 4.2 deflections per 36 minutes, sixth-best among players with 750+ minutes played. When Dunn is locking guys down on the perimeter, opponents score just 101.7 points per 100 possessions—a ridiculous 11 points below league average.

The Dunn-Zubac tandem? Third-best defensive rating among any two-man combo playing at least 400 minutes together. Their chemistry is perfect – Dunn hounds ball handlers and funnels them right into Zubac’s waiting arms. It’s basketball poetry when it works right. Jones Jr. brings that seven-foot wingspan that lets the Clippers switch everything without creating mismatches. This revamped perimeter D completes the Clippers’ defensive identity right when they need it most – heading into a playoff battle against Denver’s high-powered attack.

Kawhi Leonard’s Efficiency Numbers

Kawhi Leonard has been absolutely cooking this season, and his shooting efficiency might be the biggest reason the Clippers are suddenly looking like contenders. The way Kawhi has maintained his shooting touch despite that injury history is nothing short of remarkable. He’s hitting 49.8% from the field this season, which is practically identical to his career average of 49.9%. His three-point shooting has been even more impressive. Kawhi is knocking down 41.1% from beyond the arc. Check out the evolution of his shooting:

  • 2016-17 season: 48.5% FG, 38.0% 3PT
  • 2020-21 season: 51.2% FG, 39.8% 3PT
  • 2024-25 season: 49.8% FG, 41.1% 3PT

His Player Efficiency Rating sits at 20.4 this season. Not quite at his peak 27.5 from 2016-17, but still well above what average players deliver. The man knows how to impact a game efficiently.

Clutch time statistics

Now here’s where things get weird. For a guy with two Finals MVPs, Kawhi’s clutch numbers this season are shockingly bad. In 33 clutch minutes, he’s shooting an ice-cold 5/23 (21%) from the field. His three-point percentage plummets to 20% in those high-pressure moments. The Clippers are just 2-7 in clutch games, and Kawhi’s -19 plus/minus in these situations is the worst on the team. Not exactly what you’d expect from a guy who hit that corner fadeaway to send Toronto to the Finals. This clutch struggle has me scratching my head. It doesn’t match his reputation as one of the game’s best big-moment performers.

James Harden’s Playmaking Renaissance

Remember when everyone said James Harden was washed after that disastrous Philly exit? Well, he’s shut those critics up with a complete reinvention of his game for the Clippers. The Beard is the engine that drives this offense heading into the playoffs.

The numbers don’t lie about Harden’s growth as a playmaker. His assist-to-turnover ratio reached 2.01 this season with the Clippers, marking the third-highest of his 15-year career. That’s not just a good stat – it’s proof of his evolution from scorer to facilitator. Check out how his playmaking has evolved over the years:

  • 2017-18 season: 2.00 assist-to-turnover ratio
  • 2022-23 season: 3.17 assist-to-turnover ratio
  • 2023-24 season: 3.32 assist-to-turnover ratio

He’s currently sitting at 5th in the league with 8.7 assists per game. With 687 total assists this season, Harden has solidified himself among the NBA’s elite playmakers. The Beard may have lost a step athletically, but his basketball IQ has never been sharper.

Pick-and-roll efficiency with Zubac

The chemistry between Harden and Zubac in the pick-and-roll game is a key element to LA’s success. The results? Absolutely spectacular. Zubac now ranks in the top-3 in pick-and-roll field goal percentage (66.9%) among qualified players. His score frequency in these situations (63.9%) also places third across the entire league. Here’s what’s wild – Zubac leads the NBA with 304 post touches this season. Last year? The big man recorded only 91 post touches in 68 games. That’s the Harden effect right there, finding ways to maximize his teammates’ strengths.

Fourth quarter scoring trends

To be fair, his overall scoring might be down, but Harden still knows when to take over. The final regular season game showed us exactly why the Clippers traded for him. Harden delivered 12 points in overtime to lock up that fifth seed. Over his last five games, Harden’s averaging 5.8 points and 1.8 assists in fourth quarters. This late-game execution has been the driving force behind the Clippers’ eight-game winning streak heading into the playoffs.

Third quarter scoring differentials

Another thing to keep your eye out on is how the Clippers come out of halftime. They rank fifth in the league with a +2.4 average third-quarter margin. And when they’re at home? That number jumps to +3.3 points. Some sort of adjustments in the locker room are clearly working.

This third-quarter surge isn’t just a random stat – it’s their secret weapon. They’re dropping 29.5 points in these periods, either erasing deficits or building leads that could demoralize opponents. The defensive improvement shows up most clearly after halftime too. They hold opponents to just 54.0% shooting in the paint during third quarters, second-best in the NBA. That’s championship-level defense when it matters most.

Road game improvement factors

The most impressive thing about this Clippers team? How they handle business away from home. A 22-5 record as road favorites this season is impressive. Their shooting touch on the road is ridiculous. We’re talking 50.6% from the field and 41.2% from three as road favorites. They’re averaging 119.2 points in these games. Looking ahead to this Nuggets-Clippers matchup, their road success is going to be crucial. As the fifth seed, they’ve gotta steal at least one in Denver to advance. Based on these numbers, it is very possible. 

Upsetting Denver 

The Clippers have completely flipped the script this season, and the numbers back up what our eyes have been telling us – this team is for real. Their defensive transformation might be the most impressive thing I’ve seen all season in the NBA. What makes them so dangerous is that perfect blend of Kawhi’s shooting efficiency paired with Harden’s elite playmaking. It’s two basketball savants working in perfect harmony with a defensive force like Zubac. The big man anchoring everything on defense with his elite rim protection.

Sure, their bench production raises some eyebrows. But when your starting five is THIS dominant and you’re THAT good on the road, those concerns can be made up for. Their third-quarter dominance especially jumps off the page – it shows this team knows how to make adjustments when it matters. Now comes the real test – can they take disrupt Jokic and Jamal Murray enough defensively.  Based on everything fans have seen, the fifth-seeded Clippers have all the pieces needed to win this series. Throw the seeding out the window because the Western Conference is wide open and betting against the Clippers down the stretch was a big mistake.

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