Fall is in the air, Starbucks has started selling their Pumpkin Spice Lattes. Which means the NFL is back. It’s time to take a look across the league and give expert opinions and predictions, none of which will be wrong.
Check out the AFC West preview and predictions here.
Check out the AFC North preview and predictions here.
The AFC East is filled with animosity. The Patriots spent 20 years beating up on everyone, but are now in a full-blown rebuild with a new head coach and rookie QB. The Bills are looking to Josh Allen more than ever to carry them; the Jets just want to have a healthy season with Aaron Rodgers and avoid as much drama as possible; and the Dolphins are out to prove they can beat teams over .500 and play in cold weather.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Last season: 11-6
Prediction: 10-7
Yes, the Bills have Josh Allen, but they also cut several long-tenured players like Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, and traded away Stefon Diggs. This will be the most different look the Bills have had in years. The Bills were leaning on their run game last year after interim (now permanent) offensive coordinator Joe Brady took over in mid-November. Second-year running back James Cook was featured into the offense under Brady; the Bills went from 6-6 and fighting for a wild card slot, to 11-6 and AFC East Champions.
I would be shocked if the Bills didn’t finish as a top five rushing offense this season, with Cook and Allen’s legs leading the way behind an offensive line that’s stands to be a solid unit. Leaning on the run game will allow new receivers like rookie Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Marquez Valdez-Scantling more time to learn the offense and build chemistry with Allen, without being the crux of their attack.
2) We should be higher on James Cook
— Moody (@EricNMoody) August 10, 2024
In 2023:
▶️1,567 total yards (3rd-most - RBs)
▶️had 33 rushing attempts of 10+ yards
▶️averaged 16.7 attempts per game from Wks 11-18 (Joe Brady as OC)
The Bills OL ranked 7th in run block win rate.
Cook is the RB11 in ESPN leagues. pic.twitter.com/QBrAprdzmw
Ray Davis with 8 for 58 last week, he’s better than the masses are aware of I promise
— Rob (@Quintorris_) August 20, 2024
- Vision
- Contact balance
- Needs very little room to make a guy miss
- Always falling forward
All the makings of a RB that the Bills have lacked for about a decade pic.twitter.com/tTAAr90hFJ
Josh Allen is a top five quarterback and often the best player on the field. With that, he’s also had over 75 turnovers since 2020. That is 14 more than second place QB Derek Carr. Josh Allen also has the most total touchdowns, and second most passing touchdowns to Patrick Mahomes in that same period.
Allens play is a roller coaster, the defense played a big part in limiting the damage his turnovers would cause. I don’t think the Bills will have as good of a defensive unit that they’ve had in recent years. With so many new weapons for Josh Allen to lean on, he’ll be demanded to make something out of nothing and improvise more than ever. The more that happens, the more highs we will get, and the more lows. It just doesn’t feel like the team is equipped to deal with those lows like last season.
Miami Dolphins
Last season: 11-6
Prediction: 10-7
A lot of attention has been placed on Miami’s explosive offensive, but they were quietly 10th in total defense last season. Unfortunately, they suffered major injuries to both their starting edge rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips, their CB2 Xavien Howard, their starting free safety Jevon Holland, and middle linebacker Jerome Baker. The defense fell apart down the stretch and played a heavy role in the Dolphins late season collapse. The Dolphins made a concerted effort to revamp the defense, but they lost an excellent DT in Christian Wilkins to a massive free agency deal from the Vegas Raiders, that loss will be felt, but I think they can make up for it with a vastly improved pass defense.
Miami brought in cornerback Kendell Fuller from Washington, an upgrade over a declining Xavien Howard, Seattle MLB Jordyn Brooks, who stands to be a much better coverage backer than incumbent Jerome Baker, and signed safeties Marcus Maye and Jordan Poyer. Add that to All-Pro Jalen Ramsey and a healthy Holland, this unit has the potential to be extremely stingy against opposing passing attacks.
Outside of the RB room, Miami is one major injury on offense away from disaster. They are already going into the season with injuries to WR Jaylen Waddle, C Aaron Brewer, WR Odell Beckham Jr, and G Isiah Wynn. If a major injury was to happen to WR Tyreek Hill, OT Terron Armstead or Austin Jackson, this offense could unravel quickly.
While many are quick to put QB Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history to bed after he played his first full season in four years, he still has a longer history of missing time than not. Miami has nearly no proven back ups at wide receiver, guard, center, or tackle. Considering how badly their offense sputtered late last season due to injury, we can only assume it would be similar until proven otherwise. Miami could surprise after another year in the system and another year of development for some of their younger players, but as it stands their lack of depth on paper could be their undoing.
New York Jets
Last season: 7-10
This season: 9-8
The Jets are in for a massive disappointment. Every year, fans talk themselves up into a tizzy, and every year, the Jets fall flat. Last year was a massive stroke of bad luck with Rodgers going down not even five snaps into the year. After back-to-back 13 win seasons and MVPs in 2020 and 2021, Rodgers had an extreme down year in his final season with Green Bay, missing the playoffs in a weak NFC. A 40-year-old quarterback coming off a torn achilles, with a mediocre offensive line, does not bode well for New York. Although it’s hard to count out a four-time MVP with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall as his weapons.
The defense is likely to be a top five unit again this year. They would look a lot better if Haason Reddick ended his holdout, but as of opening thursday night, it appears he is going to start losing game checks. Opening up Monday Night Football against the San Francisco 49ers will surely test both of these teams to their limit.
New England Patriots
Last season: 4-13
Prediction: 4-13
A new head coach in New England for the first time in over two decades, and a bridge quarterback before your rookie gets a shot, is a recipe for growing pains. Jerod Mayo has to make the Patriots his team, and not just be the guy that is “replacing Bill Belichick.”
Jacoby Brissett getting the Week 1 start is probably the right move, and the Pats will be better off waiting until the middle of the season to give rookie first round pick Drake Maye his shot. They believe he is the guy, and with a shaky roster, why put him in harms way right out of the gate?
That said, the Patriots actually have a few bright spots outside of Maye’s potential. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez looks like he can be the real deal baed on his four game sample size last year, he just needs to stay healthy. Jabrill Peppers is still good, and Rhomondre Stevenson will get more of the work load again now that Ezekiel Elliott went back to Jerry Jones. Make no mistake about it though, this will not be a fun season in New England.
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