With the induction of Scott Rolen and Fred McGriff this past weekend into the Baseball Hall of Fame, the 2024 ballot has been released with returning and new names.
There are a lot of strong candidates for @baseballhall's Class of 2024. pic.twitter.com/ceFQodgG8c
— MLB (@MLB) July 24, 2023
I think the easiest way to approach the list of players would be to go from the most obvious answers, to the most questionable ones. No matter what I say, though, the criteria to make the notoriously stingy Baseball Hall of Fame is even more muddied due to Scott Rolen getting in. No disrespect to Rolen, but there are guys on this very list that are better baseball players than him.
Regardless, let’s dive into the ballot.
The Steroid Guys
Unfortunately, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez aren’t getting into the Hall. For me, both of these guys are easily Hall of Fame material; but they touched the forbidden sauce, and that just isn’t going to fly. They will, in all likelihood, suffer the same fate as Bonds and Clemens. Rotting on the ballot for 10 years, never to reach that 75% threshold.
However, there is a spark of hope inside of me that suggests A-Rod could be the first guy who had admittedly used steroids to get into the Hall. He has reshaped his image immensely since his retirement, and has really tried to make amends with the league and the media for the choices he made during his playing days. No one else of the steroid era has done that (Big Papi got a pass though).
A-Rod received 35.7% on his ballot, while Manny received 33.2%.
The Forget-me-nots
The players you don’t see on the tweet attached to the graphic above. Players who received less than 25% of the ballot (you must receive 5% to stay on).
Omar Vizquel: 76 votes, 19.5%
Andy Pettitte: 66 votes, 17%
Bobby Abreu: 60 votes, 15.4%
Jimmy Rollins: 50 votes, 12.9%
Mark Buehrle: 42 votes, 10.8%
Francisco Rodriguez: 42 votes, 10.8%
Torii Hunter: 27 votes, 6.9 percent
Honestly, this mix of nostalgia and Scott Rolen has my mind in a pretzel. Because Torii Hunter was a problem. Yet, he only received 6.9% of the vote, barely making the cut to stay on. Andy Pettitte is the all-time Postseason wins leader and a 5-time World Series Champion, but even that barely makes a scratch in Cooperstown. None of these guys will see the Hall, but wow, there are some really good ball players here. So unfortunate.
The Worthy
This is the section where I tell you who I think should be a Hall of Famer, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll get in.
A moment of silence here for Jeff Kent, who did not make the Baseball Hall of Fame on his final year on the ballot. He was absolutely on par, or even better than, Scott Rolen.
NEW PLAYERS:
Adrian Beltré
Joe Mauer
RETURNING PLAYERS
Todd Helton: 281 votes, 72.2%
Billy Wagner: 265 votes, 68.1%
Andruw Jones: 226 votes, 58.1%
Gary Sheffield: 214 votes, 55%
Carlos Beltrán: 181 votes, 46.5%
All of these guys should be Hall of Famers. I don’t think it is a debate. Helton is basically a lock at this point after reaching just over 72%. Billy Wagner will need some more votes, but after receiving just 51% the previous year, he made a huge leap and is sniffing the doorstep heading into his ninth year on the ballot.
In my opinion, the only person on this list that should even be questionable is Andruw Jones because his offensive productivity fell off hard after his career with Atlanta. But he is one of the best defensive Centerfielders of all-time, and should be in the Hall.
Gary Sheffield, I can’t believe I even have to give a reason for him. World Series, Batting Title, 500+ home runs, nearly 2,700 hits. He has a questionable link to steroids, but since Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza are in, he should be too.
Carlos Beltrán, one of the best switch hitters of all-time, is one of seven players to hit 200+ home runs in each league; joining Pujols, Guerrero, McGwire, Griffey Jr., F. Robinson, McGriff. See a trend? All Hall of Famers. When this dude was running, he looked like a Gazelle. Such a graceful player on the diamond.
The Unlikely’s
The newcomers who don’t have a reasonable shot to make the Hall of Fame: Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley, David Wright. The career stats and accolades just are not there for these guys. Adrian Gonzalez has the strongest case, with over 300 homers, 2,000 hits, and a few silver sluggers and gold gloves, but that probably doesn’t get him over the hump.
David Wright is a sad tale, as I’m sure Mets fans know. Had injuries not derailed his career by the time Wright turned 30, he could’ve been one of the all-time Mets and baseball legends, standing alone in the Mets records books. But alas, that’s not the way his story turned out.
Chase Utley, no. While he was probably a terror to Mets fans and other National League teams alike, he only really had about five exceptional seasons, much like David Wright. Although Utley’s decline was due to age, not injury.
The Likely’s
Based on their track record, this is who the BBWAA will probably vote into the Hall of Fame in 2024.
Todd Helton
Adrián Beltré
and with a little bit of good luck:
Billy Wagner
Joe Mauer
As mentioned, Helton is practically kissing that 75% threshold. Wagner is going to need a little bump, but based on his leap from ’22-’23, he should get there too. If not, he’ll probably get in 2025, which would be his final year on the ballot (you generally will get a bump your final year from writers).
Beltré is an absolute mortal lock for first ballot Hall of Famer. Gold gloves, platinum gloves, silver sluggers, 3,166 hits and 477 home runs, a perfect blend of professional hitting with otherworldly defense. Not to mention, just a funny dude who loved playing the game. No doubts here.
The least likely of the likely to get in next year is Joe Mauer, long time Minnesota Twins catcher. Mauer won an MVP, two batting titles, and multiple gold gloves and silver sluggers during his time in Minnesota, and on top of that, he was an exceptional defensive catcher before eventually switching to first base because of his age.
Mauer was the best catcher in the game when I was growing up. He was never a power guy, but he just knew how to put the bat on the ball. Do you know how good you have to be to win MVP as a catcher in the modern game of baseball? It’s so difficult, but he did it. Even if he doesn’t get in first ballot (he absolutely should), I have confidence he’ll get in second ballot.
The Baseball Hall of Fame voting process has become exceedingly more difficult to gauge with the BBWAA. Guys I grew up watching that I thought for sure were Hall of Famers are on a waiting list; and guys who I thought were “Hall of Very Good” material are in before those other guys I thought were good.
I do know one thing: I grew up in potentially one of the greatest time periods in baseball history. The older I get, and the more names I see get inducted into the Hall, the luckier I feel to have witnessed all of them.
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