CBDCs: Central Bank’s Savior?

2022 has been a global economic hurricane. The latest damage was observed in foreign exchange markets. Where the Great British Pound, Euro, Yen and other G20 currencies have been in free fall as the US Dollar rallies. This paired with massive energy inflation is causing sever financial problems globally. One of these problems I speculate is a large scale liquidity crisis throughout Europe. As energy prices have gone 2x-3x this year alone citizens across the Bloc have begun defaulting on payments. This cascading event has caused many European energy companies to become in solvent forcing governments to step in and nationalize these companies. Printing money to solve macro economic problems has been the sole solution of the 21st century and has proven to be effective until now. As raging inflation shows now sign of stopping, QE is now off the table. 

 

What will Central Banks use this time to help avert a financial disaster and save the financial system as we know it? Here I pose a possible use case for CBDCs as debt restructuring instruments. There may be another Bretton Woods moment right around the corner. This is not financial advice. 

 

PROBLEM:

 

What we are witnessing now is a currency failure the existing system (Brenton Woods) seems to be fatality wounded. Due to inflation the bond markets are plunging because all of this debt is now growing faster than the rate of return to pay it off (hyperinflation). As other countries need dollars to try and stabilize their currencies (G20) they need to buy dollars to pay down debt to improve the quality of their currency. This is why we have DXY rippy. 

 

CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS: 

 

This situation seems to be a Triffin dilemma where there is an inherent conflict of interest when a single countries is the world reserve currency. Fed needs strong dollar to combat inflation but this ROYALLY FUCKS every other currency. Basic fractional math when the denominator increases your resultant decreases. This is why we see liquidity problems in Japan and Europe/UK first. We see this in the energy markets where governments like Germany are trying to nationalize Electrical and gas companies. It seems like the Fed was left with a bifurcate of Depression or hyperinflation. 

 

The fed is choosing Depression raising interest rates. Which from the point of view of the Fed is the right move. It can survive a depression (1929) but there is no surviving hyperinflation. Powell says he is hell bent on beating inflation. This means interest rates are going to the moon (sustained 5% to 2024). The market is already in free fall and we aren’t even at peak QT right now. So this leads me to believe a liquidity crisis is out their on the horizon. 

 

During the last crisis ‘08 the needed to create a tool to save the economy. Birth of QE. We are at the point where the US treasuries can’t take on anymore debt(print) so that tool no longer works. 

 

To the best of my abilities I speculate that  Digital Currencies CBDCs is the next tool to save us from this liquidity crisis. Mechanically how does that work:

 

The central banks are currently creating CBDCs. Why??? Because digital currencies are 10x? BETTER than our current system. The ability to record data through this system is Ungodly powerful (what we are afraid of). This data will DECREASE RISK a significant amount making this system cheaper to use than the existing. This tool will allow for massive debt restructuring (tokenization of everything) and will allow for currencies to stabilize. CBDCs will be the next tool used to create more debt to bail out the current system. 

 

SOLUTION:

 

The playbook for how this is going to proceed is ISO20022 in which Ripple is Lead Architect and Manager of. It seems that XRP will be used as at first as a bridge currency. Meaning if I want to send Fedcoin and trade it in for E-Shekel what would be the reserve currency? In our current system a countries currency (DXY) but the inherent flaw of that system is Triffin Dilemma. So how it that avoided? You have a custodial coin(s) that the large banks and institutions agree on (gate keepers). Of those coins XRP is the most advanced and utilized. Ripple is the architect and custodian of that block chain. 

 

Analogy I use is that the CBDCs are train stations being built and ISO20022 are building and maintaining the rails. Sending currency faster and more efficiently than ever before. 

 

I don’t know depends on how long the existing system can hold on for but ISO20022 is being planned to roll out end of 2022 in Europe and Q1 2023 in the US.