Is Russia Invading the Ukraine?

Over the weekend, some news outlets, whichever you decide are real in 2022, were speculating how the Russians were going to start invading the Ukraine. News outlets seem to be getting leaks from US and/or NATO Intelligence tracking the movement of Russian Troops. The relationship between Intelligence and the press has been front and center on all forms of media the past few weeks. It has gotten to the point where daily Russian troop movements are being broadcasted on Twitter, and the “eminent invasion” is being timed to the day. It may be important to take a step back and look at the situation from another view. Is war as inevitable as it may seem? 

If we look at the situation through the eyes of Putin, the landscape does not seem fit for an invasion. Historically, invading Eastern Europe and Russia in the dead of winter is a terrible choice – go ask Napoleon and Hitler how that went. Additionally, why would Russia invade when the eyes of the world are on them? By invading, they paint themselves as the aggressor and lose moral high ground in this total war. The chances Russia invades Ukraine with the eyes of the world on it in the dead of Russian winter are extremely low. 


We must take the time to ask the question, “why is Ukraine so important?” This question shapes this conflict and depicts the deeply divided Geopolitical situation playing out. The world is splitting into two groups, NATO and its allies led by the US and Europe, and an Axis power headed by China and Russia. Ukraine borders Russia, and NATO wants to bring in Ukraine as another ally. The Russians, who once controlled the Ukraine during the years of the USSR, believe that the Ukraine should still be part of Russia and don’t want NATO at their border. This narrative is playing out in the Ukraine and in many other conflicts around the world.  

Looking at this situation not just as a local issue but a global play is also important here. As stated before, China and Russia have formulated a friendship through the hatred of the US. Their moves are always in pair because “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.” The two also share a border and may have realized that they could only tear each other down. Is it a coincidence that during the Chinese Olympics the biggest story in the world is Russia starting WWIII? The truth is China loves operating in the dark. 

Through the eyes of the Chinese, they believe that the island of Taiwan is its rightful property and have sworn to capture it before 2050. By capturing Taiwan, the Chinese Communist Party would create a monopoly in the vital semiconductor market. This could cripple NATO. So, what better way to distract the ire of civilization: Have the Russians threaten war in the middle of Eastern Europe. This draws the attention and resources of many NATO forces, leaving the island of Taiwan just a little more vulnerable. There is conflict in Ukraine, and ultimately it’s a bluff by the Russians.

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